One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. We evaluate Airbus prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIR.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy AIR.PA stock.

Keywords: AIR.PA, Airbus, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. How do you pick a stock?

## AIR.PA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We consider Airbus Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of AIR.PA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Beta)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AIR.PA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AIR.PA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AIR.PA Airbus
Time series to forecast n: 16 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy AIR.PA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Airbus assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIR.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy AIR.PA stock.

### Financial State Forecast for AIR.PA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 3931
Market Risk4848
Technical Analysis4537
Fundamental Analysis4187
Risk Unsystematic8144

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 769 signals.

## References

1. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
2. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
4. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
5. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
7. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AIR.PA stock?
A: AIR.PA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is AIR.PA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy AIR.PA Stock.
Q: Is Airbus stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Airbus is HoldBuy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AIR.PA stock?
A: The consensus rating for AIR.PA is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AIR.PA stock?
A: The prediction period for AIR.PA is (n+16 weeks)