## Abstract

We evaluate JBG Smith prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JBGS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell JBGS stock.

Keywords: JBGS, JBG Smith, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms? ## JBGS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JBG Smith Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of JBGS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JBGS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## JBGS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JBGS JBG Smith
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell JBGS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

JBG Smith assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JBGS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell JBGS stock.

### Financial State Forecast for JBGS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B3
Operational Risk 8140
Market Risk4652
Technical Analysis8743
Fundamental Analysis4056
Risk Unsystematic6142

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 721 signals.

## References

1. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
2. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
3. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
6. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
7. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JBGS stock?
A: JBGS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is JBGS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell JBGS Stock.
Q: Is JBG Smith stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JBG Smith is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JBGS stock?
A: The consensus rating for JBGS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for JBGS stock?
A: The prediction period for JBGS is (n+16 weeks)