Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (KR Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Kroger prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Strong Sell KR stock.

Keywords: KR, Kroger, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. Operational Risk

KR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Kroger Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of KR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KR Kroger
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Strong Sell KR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Kroger assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Strong Sell KR stock.

Financial State Forecast for KR Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Operational Risk	59	31
Market Risk	81	82
Technical Analysis	55	40
Fundamental Analysis	82	50
Risk Unsystematic	30	40

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 696 signals.

References

1. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
2. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
3. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
4. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
5. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
6. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
7. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for KR stock?
A: KR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is KR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Strong Sell KR Stock.
Q: Is Kroger stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kroger is Strong Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KR stock?
A: The consensus rating for KR is Strong Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for KR stock?
A: The prediction period for KR is (n+16 weeks)

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