## Abstract

**We evaluate BP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.**

**LON:BP.A, BP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
- Game Theory
- Investment Risk

## LON:BP.A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BP PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BP.A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Linear Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BP.A stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:BP.A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**LON:BP.A BP PLC

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

BP PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Linear Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for LON:BP.A Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 85 | 54 |

Market Risk | 44 | 64 |

Technical Analysis | 58 | 35 |

Fundamental Analysis | 75 | 83 |

Risk Unsystematic | 57 | 77 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
- M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
- O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
- M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
- F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
- Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
- L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BP.A stock?A: LON:BP.A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression

Q: Is LON:BP.A stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A Stock.

Q: Is BP PLC stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for BP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BP.A stock?

A: The consensus rating for LON:BP.A is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BP.A stock?

A: The prediction period for LON:BP.A is (n+4 weeks)