## Abstract

We evaluate BP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.

Keywords: LON:BP.A, BP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. Game Theory
3. Investment Risk ## LON:BP.A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BP PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BP.A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BP.A stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:BP.A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BP.A BP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

BP PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:BP.A Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 8554
Market Risk4464
Technical Analysis5835
Fundamental Analysis7583
Risk Unsystematic5777

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 522 signals.

## References

1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
2. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
3. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
4. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
5. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
6. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
7. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BP.A stock?
A: LON:BP.A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:BP.A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A Stock.
Q: Is BP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BP.A stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BP.A is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BP.A stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BP.A is (n+4 weeks)

## People also ask

What are the top stocks to invest in right now?
Our Mission

As AC Investment Research, our goal is to do fundamental research, bring forward a totally new, scientific technology and create frameworks for objective forecasting using machine learning and fundamentals of Game Theory.

301 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139 667-253-1000 pr@ademcetinkaya.com

Follow Us | Send Feedback