Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (LON:BP.A Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate BP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.


Keywords: LON:BP.A, BP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Game Theory
  3. Investment Risk

LON:BP.A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BP PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BP.A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BP.A stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BP.A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BP.A BP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

BP PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BP.A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:BP.A Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 8554
Market Risk4464
Technical Analysis5835
Fundamental Analysis7583
Risk Unsystematic5777

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 522 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  2. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  3. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  4. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  5. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  6. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  7. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BP.A stock?
A: LON:BP.A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:BP.A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BP.A Stock.
Q: Is BP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BP.A stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BP.A is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BP.A stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BP.A is (n+4 weeks)

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