Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We evaluate KINGSPAN GROUP PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KGP stock.
Keywords: LON:KGP, KINGSPAN GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.
Key Points
- Dominated Move
- What are main components of Markov decision process?
- Can statistics predict the future?
LON:KGP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology
Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior. We consider KINGSPAN GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:KGP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4
F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks)
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of LON:KGP stock
j:Nash equilibria
k:Dominated move
a:Best response for target price
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LON:KGP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)
Sample Set: Neural NetworkStock/Index: LON:KGP KINGSPAN GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KGP stock.
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%
Conclusions
KINGSPAN GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KGP stock.
Financial State Forecast for LON:KGP Stock Options & Futures
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | Ba3 | B1 |
| Operational Risk | 87 | 32 |
| Market Risk | 39 | 44 |
| Technical Analysis | 37 | 88 |
| Fundamental Analysis | 74 | 41 |
| Risk Unsystematic | 82 | 87 |
Prediction Confidence Score
References
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- Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
- Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
- Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
- Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:KGP stock?A: LON:KGP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:KGP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:KGP Stock.
Q: Is KINGSPAN GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KINGSPAN GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:KGP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:KGP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:KGP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:KGP is (n+4 weeks)
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