Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate TESCO PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TSCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TSCO stock.

Keywords: LON:TSCO, TESCO PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## LON:TSCO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We consider TESCO PLC Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TSCO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TSCO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:TSCO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TSCO TESCO PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TSCO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

TESCO PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TSCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TSCO stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:TSCO Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B3
Operational Risk 4444
Market Risk8340
Technical Analysis4151
Fundamental Analysis6765
Risk Unsystematic8631

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 462 signals.

## References

1. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
2. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
3. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
4. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
5. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TSCO stock?
A: LON:TSCO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is LON:TSCO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TSCO Stock.
Q: Is TESCO PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TESCO PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TSCO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TSCO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TSCO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TSCO is (n+4 weeks)