Neural networks (NNs), as artificial intelligence (AI) methods, have become very important in making stock market predictions. Much research on the applications of NNs for solving business problems have proven their advantages over statistical and other methods that do not include AI, although there is no optimal methodology for a certain problem. We evaluate Ashland prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.

Keywords: ASH, Ashland, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

## ASH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market is basically nonlinear in nature and the research on stock market is one of the most important issues in recent years. People invest in stock market based on some prediction. For predict, the stock market prices people search such methods and tools which will increase their profits, while minimize their risks. Prediction plays a very important role in stock market business which is very complicated and challenging process. We consider Ashland Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of ASH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ASH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASH Ashland
Time series to forecast n: 16 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Ashland assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ASH Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 7179
Market Risk5875
Technical Analysis7374
Fundamental Analysis5330
Risk Unsystematic8230

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 651 signals.

## References

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2. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
3. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
4. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
7. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASH stock?
A: ASH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is ASH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH Stock.
Q: Is Ashland stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ashland is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASH stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASH stock?
A: The prediction period for ASH is (n+1 year)