The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We evaluate Home BancShares prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOMB stock.

Keywords: HOMB, Home BancShares, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## HOMB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We consider Home BancShares Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of HOMB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOMB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HOMB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HOMB Home BancShares
Time series to forecast n: 23 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOMB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Home BancShares assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOMB stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HOMB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 4281
Market Risk5469
Technical Analysis4749
Fundamental Analysis8180
Risk Unsystematic4464

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 801 signals.

## References

1. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
2. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
3. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
4. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
5. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
6. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
7. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HOMB stock?
A: HOMB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is HOMB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOMB Stock.
Q: Is Home BancShares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Home BancShares is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HOMB stock?
A: The consensus rating for HOMB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HOMB stock?
A: The prediction period for HOMB is (n+16 weeks)