Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate Nov prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NOV stock.

Keywords: NOV, Nov, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Reaction Function
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

## NOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. We consider Nov Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NOV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NOV Nov
Time series to forecast n: 20 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NOV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Nov assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NOV stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NOV Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 3787
Market Risk4146
Technical Analysis7588
Fundamental Analysis4089
Risk Unsystematic6772

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 632 signals.

## References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
2. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
4. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
5. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
6. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NOV stock?
A: NOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is NOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NOV Stock.
Q: Is Nov stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nov is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for NOV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NOV stock?
A: The prediction period for NOV is (n+8 weeks)