## Abstract

We evaluate Ross Stores prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ROST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROST stock.

Keywords: ROST, Ross Stores, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. What is neural prediction?
3. Operational Risk

## ROST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ross Stores Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ROST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ROST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ROST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ROST Ross Stores
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Ross Stores assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ROST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROST stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ROST Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 3739
Market Risk7433
Technical Analysis8047
Fundamental Analysis6577
Risk Unsystematic6582

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 726 signals.

## References

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2. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
3. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
4. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
6. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
7. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ROST stock?
A: ROST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is ROST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROST Stock.
Q: Is Ross Stores stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ross Stores is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ROST stock?
A: The consensus rating for ROST is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ROST stock?
A: The prediction period for ROST is (n+6 month)