Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We evaluate Host Hotels & Resorts prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

Keywords: HST, Host Hotels & Resorts, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Market Signals

## HST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is a major exertion in the field of finance and establishing businesses. Stock market is totally uncertain as the prices of stocks keep fluctuating on a daily basis because of numerous factors that influence it. One of the traditional ways of predicting stock prices was by using only historical data. But with time it was observed that other factors such as peoples' sentiments and other news events occurring in and around the country affect the stock market, for e.g. national elections, natural calamity etc. We consider Host Hotels & Resorts Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of HST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HST Host Hotels & Resorts
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Host Hotels & Resorts assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HST Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Baa2
Operational Risk 7167
Market Risk6270
Technical Analysis7266
Fundamental Analysis8278
Risk Unsystematic7288

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 676 signals.

## References

1. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
3. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
4. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
5. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
6. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HST stock?
A: HST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is HST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST Stock.
Q: Is Host Hotels & Resorts stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Host Hotels & Resorts is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HST stock?
A: The consensus rating for HST is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HST stock?
A: The prediction period for HST is (n+4 weeks)