What are buy sell or hold recommendations? (CME Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate CME Group prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CME stock.


Keywords: CME, CME Group, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Investment Risk
  2. Market Outlook
  3. Dominated Move

CME Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CME Group Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CME stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CME stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CME Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CME CME Group
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CME stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

CME Group assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CME stock.

Financial State Forecast for CME Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 6385
Market Risk5855
Technical Analysis4889
Fundamental Analysis4873
Risk Unsystematic4385

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 559 signals.

References

  1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  2. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  3. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  4. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  5. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  6. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  7. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CME stock?
A: CME stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is CME stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CME Stock.
Q: Is CME Group stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CME Group is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CME stock?
A: The consensus rating for CME is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CME stock?
A: The prediction period for CME is (n+16 weeks)

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