## Abstract

**We evaluate American Express prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.**

**AXP, American Express, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Market Signals
- Can neural networks predict stock market?
- How useful are statistical predictions?

## AXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Express Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of AXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Factor)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AXP American Express

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

American Express assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 67 | 30 |

Market Risk | 74 | 49 |

Technical Analysis | 50 | 86 |

Fundamental Analysis | 77 | 44 |

Risk Unsystematic | 88 | 37 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
- Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
- S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
- Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
- Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
- S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
- Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AXP stock?A: AXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor

Q: Is AXP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP Stock.

Q: Is American Express stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for American Express is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AXP stock?

A: The consensus rating for AXP is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for AXP stock?

A: The prediction period for AXP is (n+6 month)

- Live broadcast of expert trader insights
- Real-time stock market analysis
- Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
- Real-time updates
- In-depth research reports (PDF)