What are buy sell or hold recommendations? (AXP Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate American Express prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.

Keywords: AXP, American Express, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

AXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Express Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of AXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Factor)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AXP American Express
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

American Express assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP stock.

Financial State Forecast for AXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	B2
Operational Risk	67	30
Market Risk	74	49
Technical Analysis	50	86
Fundamental Analysis	77	44
Risk Unsystematic	88	37

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 472 signals.

References

1. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
2. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
3. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
4. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
5. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
6. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AXP stock?
A: AXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is AXP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXP Stock.
Q: Is American Express stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Express is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AXP stock?
A: The consensus rating for AXP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AXP stock?
A: The prediction period for AXP is (n+6 month)

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