What are the most successful trading algorithms? (LON:EQLS Stock Forecast)


Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate EQUALS GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:EQLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:EQLS stock.


Keywords: LON:EQLS, EQUALS GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

LON:EQLS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We consider EQUALS GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:EQLS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:EQLS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:EQLS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:EQLS EQUALS GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:EQLS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

EQUALS GROUP PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:EQLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:EQLS stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:EQLS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Operational Risk 8187
Market Risk3053
Technical Analysis3782
Fundamental Analysis4878
Risk Unsystematic7347

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 580 signals.

References

  1. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  3. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  5. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  6. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:EQLS stock?
A: LON:EQLS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:EQLS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:EQLS Stock.
Q: Is EQUALS GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EQUALS GROUP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:EQLS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:EQLS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:EQLS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:EQLS is (n+6 month)

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