Modelling A.I. in Economics

What are the most successful trading algorithms? (LNW Stock Forecast)

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour. We evaluate Light & Wonder prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LNW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LNW stock.


Keywords: LNW, Light & Wonder, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Rating
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

LNW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. We consider Light & Wonder Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of LNW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LNW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LNW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LNW Light & Wonder
Time series to forecast n: 25 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LNW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Light & Wonder assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LNW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LNW stock.

Financial State Forecast for LNW Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 4556
Market Risk5676
Technical Analysis8761
Fundamental Analysis7757
Risk Unsystematic4269

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 704 signals.

References

  1. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  3. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  4. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  5. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  6. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LNW stock?
A: LNW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LNW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LNW Stock.
Q: Is Light & Wonder stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Light & Wonder is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LNW stock?
A: The consensus rating for LNW is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LNW stock?
A: The prediction period for LNW is (n+3 month)

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