## Abstract

**We evaluate JD.com prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.**

**JD, JD.com, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What is prediction model?
- Nash Equilibria
- Can statistics predict the future?

## JD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JD.com Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of JD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Beta)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## JD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**JD JD.com

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

JD.com assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for JD Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 78 | 37 |

Market Risk | 57 | 68 |

Technical Analysis | 83 | 55 |

Fundamental Analysis | 53 | 38 |

Risk Unsystematic | 70 | 66 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
- Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for JD stock?A: JD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta

Q: Is JD stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD Stock.

Q: Is JD.com stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for JD.com is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of JD stock?

A: The consensus rating for JD is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for JD stock?

A: The prediction period for JD is (n+6 month)

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