What are the most successful trading algorithms? (JD Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate JD.com prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.

Keywords: JD, JD.com, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. Nash Equilibria
3. Can statistics predict the future?

JD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JD.com Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of JD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Beta)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JD JD.com
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

JD.com assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.

Financial State Forecast for JD Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	B2
Operational Risk	78	37
Market Risk	57	68
Technical Analysis	83	55
Fundamental Analysis	53	38
Risk Unsystematic	70	66

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 697 signals.

References

1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
3. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
4. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
5. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
6. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for JD stock?
A: JD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta
Q: Is JD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD Stock.
Q: Is JD.com stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JD.com is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JD stock?
A: The consensus rating for JD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for JD stock?
A: The prediction period for JD is (n+6 month)

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