Abstract
We evaluate JD.com prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.
Keywords: JD, JD.com, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.
Key Points
- What is prediction model?
- Nash Equilibria
- Can statistics predict the future?
JD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology
We consider JD.com Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of JD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4
F(Beta)5,6,7= X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month)
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of JD stock
j:Nash equilibria
k:Dominated move
a:Best response for target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?
JD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)
Sample Set: Neural NetworkStock/Index: JD JD.com
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)
According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%
Conclusions
JD.com assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD stock.
Financial State Forecast for JD Stock Options & Futures
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | Ba2 | B2 |
| Operational Risk | 78 | 37 |
| Market Risk | 57 | 68 |
| Technical Analysis | 83 | 55 |
| Fundamental Analysis | 53 | 38 |
| Risk Unsystematic | 70 | 66 |
Prediction Confidence Score
References
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
- Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the prediction methodology for JD stock?A: JD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta
Q: Is JD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JD Stock.
Q: Is JD.com stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JD.com is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JD stock?
A: The consensus rating for JD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for JD stock?
A: The prediction period for JD is (n+6 month)