What are the most successful trading algorithms? (OXY Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Occidental Petroleum prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OXY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OXY stock.


Keywords: OXY, Occidental Petroleum, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. What is a prediction confidence?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

OXY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Occidental Petroleum Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of OXY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OXY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OXY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OXY Occidental Petroleum
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OXY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Occidental Petroleum assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OXY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OXY stock.

Financial State Forecast for OXY Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 4454
Market Risk5257
Technical Analysis3262
Fundamental Analysis4881
Risk Unsystematic7261

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 490 signals.

References

  1. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  3. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  4. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  5. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  6. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  7. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OXY stock?
A: OXY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is OXY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OXY Stock.
Q: Is Occidental Petroleum stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Occidental Petroleum is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OXY stock?
A: The consensus rating for OXY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for OXY stock?
A: The prediction period for OXY is (n+1 year)

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