## Abstract

**We evaluate Autodesk prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.**

**ADSK, Autodesk, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
- Decision Making
- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## ADSK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Autodesk Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ADSK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADSK stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ADSK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ADSK Autodesk

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Autodesk assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for ADSK Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 70 | 82 |

Market Risk | 64 | 51 |

Technical Analysis | 71 | 68 |

Fundamental Analysis | 31 | 35 |

Risk Unsystematic | 57 | 62 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
- Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
- L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
- Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
- Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ADSK stock?A: ADSK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

Q: Is ADSK stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK Stock.

Q: Is Autodesk stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Autodesk is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ADSK stock?

A: The consensus rating for ADSK is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for ADSK stock?

A: The prediction period for ADSK is (n+16 weeks)

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