## Abstract

We evaluate Autodesk prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.

Keywords: ADSK, Autodesk, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. Decision Making
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## ADSK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Autodesk Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ADSK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Sample Set: Neural Network
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Autodesk assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ADSK Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 7082
Market Risk6451
Technical Analysis7168
Fundamental Analysis3135
Risk Unsystematic5762

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 487 signals.

## References

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2. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
3. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
5. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
6. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
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A: ADSK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADSK Stock.
Q: Is Autodesk stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Autodesk is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ADSK stock?
A: The consensus rating for ADSK is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ADSK stock?
A: The prediction period for ADSK is (n+16 weeks)