Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting. We evaluate Builders FirstSource prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLDR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BLDR stock.

Keywords: BLDR, Builders FirstSource, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

## BLDR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Impact of many factors on the stock prices makes the stock prediction a difficult and highly complicated task. In this paper, machine learning techniques have been applied for the stock price prediction in order to overcome such difficulties. In the implemented work, five models have been developed and their performances are compared in predicting the stock market trends. We consider Builders FirstSource Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of BLDR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BLDR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BLDR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BLDR Builders FirstSource
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BLDR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Builders FirstSource assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLDR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BLDR stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BLDR Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 8470
Market Risk4875
Technical Analysis7880
Fundamental Analysis3831
Risk Unsystematic8058

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 501 signals.

## References

1. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
2. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
3. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
4. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
5. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
6. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
7. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BLDR stock?
A: BLDR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is BLDR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BLDR Stock.
Q: Is Builders FirstSource stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Builders FirstSource is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BLDR stock?
A: The consensus rating for BLDR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BLDR stock?
A: The prediction period for BLDR is (n+3 month)

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