## Abstract

**We evaluate ConocoPhillips prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the COP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.**

**COP, ConocoPhillips, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- What is the use of Markov decision process?
- Stock Rating

## COP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ConocoPhillips Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of COP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Independent T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of COP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## COP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**COP ConocoPhillips

**Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

ConocoPhillips assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the COP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for COP Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 66 | 40 |

Market Risk | 53 | 87 |

Technical Analysis | 84 | 35 |

Fundamental Analysis | 61 | 84 |

Risk Unsystematic | 52 | 40 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
- Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
- V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
- Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
- Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for COP stock?A: COP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test

Q: Is COP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP Stock.

Q: Is ConocoPhillips stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for ConocoPhillips is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of COP stock?

A: The consensus rating for COP is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for COP stock?

A: The prediction period for COP is (n+8 weeks)