When should you buy or sell a stock? (COP Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate ConocoPhillips prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the COP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.

Keywords: COP, ConocoPhillips, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. Stock Rating

COP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ConocoPhillips Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of COP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of COP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

COP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: COP ConocoPhillips
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

ConocoPhillips assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the COP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP stock.

Financial State Forecast for COP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	66	40
Market Risk	53	87
Technical Analysis	84	35
Fundamental Analysis	61	84
Risk Unsystematic	52	40

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 800 signals.

References

1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
2. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
3. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
4. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
5. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
6. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
7. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for COP stock?
A: COP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is COP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell COP Stock.
Q: Is ConocoPhillips stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ConocoPhillips is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of COP stock?
A: The consensus rating for COP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for COP stock?
A: The prediction period for COP is (n+8 weeks)

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