When should you buy or sell a stock? (FLS Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Flowserve prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.

Keywords: FLS, Flowserve, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trading Signals
2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

FLS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Flowserve Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of FLS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FLS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FLS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FLS Flowserve
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Flowserve assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.

Financial State Forecast for FLS Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Caa2	Ba2
Operational Risk	40	59
Market Risk	42	37
Technical Analysis	33	87
Fundamental Analysis	70	79
Risk Unsystematic	34	84

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 532 signals.

References

1. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
2. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
3. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
7. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FLS stock?
A: FLS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is FLS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS Stock.
Q: Is Flowserve stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Flowserve is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FLS stock?
A: The consensus rating for FLS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FLS stock?
A: The prediction period for FLS is (n+3 month)

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