When should you buy or sell a stock? (NVDA Stock Forecast)

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate Nvidia prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NVDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NVDA stock.

Keywords: NVDA, Nvidia, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. Dominated Move
3. Trading Signals

NVDA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend. We consider Nvidia Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NVDA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NVDA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NVDA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NVDA Nvidia
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NVDA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Nvidia assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NVDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NVDA stock.

Financial State Forecast for NVDA Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	84	36
Market Risk	86	63
Technical Analysis	32	70
Fundamental Analysis	62	56
Risk Unsystematic	30	79

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 710 signals.

References

1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
4. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NVDA stock?
A: NVDA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is NVDA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NVDA Stock.
Q: Is Nvidia stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nvidia is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NVDA stock?
A: The consensus rating for NVDA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NVDA stock?
A: The prediction period for NVDA is (n+4 weeks)

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