When should you buy or sell a stock? (SBUX Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Starbucks prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SBUX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SBUX stock.

Keywords: SBUX, Starbucks, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

SBUX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Starbucks Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of SBUX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SBUX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SBUX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SBUX Starbucks
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SBUX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Starbucks assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SBUX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SBUX stock.

Financial State Forecast for SBUX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba2
Operational Risk	76	86
Market Risk	49	49
Technical Analysis	81	81
Fundamental Analysis	72	47
Risk Unsystematic	67	79

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 611 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
2. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
3. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
4. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
5. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
7. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SBUX stock?
A: SBUX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is SBUX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SBUX Stock.
Q: Is Starbucks stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Starbucks is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SBUX stock?
A: The consensus rating for SBUX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SBUX stock?
A: The prediction period for SBUX is (n+16 weeks)

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