Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We evaluate ExxonMobil prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold XOM stock.

Keywords: XOM, ExxonMobil, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

## XOM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock index with traditional time series analysis has proven to be difficult an Artificial Neural network may be suitable for the task. A Neural Network has the ability to extract useful information from large set of data. This paper presents a review of literature application of Artificial Neural Network for stock market predictions and from this literature found that Artificial Neural Network is very useful for predicting world stock markets. We consider ExxonMobil Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of XOM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of XOM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## XOM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: XOM ExxonMobil
Time series to forecast n: 19 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold XOM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

ExxonMobil assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold XOM stock.

### Financial State Forecast for XOM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 4267
Market Risk3067
Technical Analysis7670
Fundamental Analysis5460
Risk Unsystematic6577

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 642 signals.

## References

1. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
2. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
3. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
5. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
6. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
7. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for XOM stock?
A: XOM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is XOM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold XOM Stock.
Q: Is ExxonMobil stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ExxonMobil is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of XOM stock?
A: The consensus rating for XOM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for XOM stock?
A: The prediction period for XOM is (n+4 weeks)