Abstract

We evaluate Alleghany prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Y stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.

Keywords: Y, Alleghany, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. What is neural prediction?
3. Can statistics predict the future?

Y Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Alleghany Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Y stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Y stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Y Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Y Alleghany
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Alleghany assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Y stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.

Financial State Forecast for Y Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 3780
Market Risk5840
Technical Analysis5174
Fundamental Analysis5483
Risk Unsystematic4432

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 611 signals.

References

1. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
3. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
4. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
5. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
6. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
7. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Y stock?
A: Y stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is Y stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y Stock.
Q: Is Alleghany stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alleghany is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Y stock?
A: The consensus rating for Y is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for Y stock?
A: The prediction period for Y is (n+1 year)