## Abstract

**We evaluate Alleghany prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Y stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.**

**Y, Alleghany, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Market Risk
- What is neural prediction?
- Can statistics predict the future?

## Y Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Alleghany Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Y stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Logistic Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Y stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Y Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**Y Alleghany

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Alleghany assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Y stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for Y Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B3 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 37 | 80 |

Market Risk | 58 | 40 |

Technical Analysis | 51 | 74 |

Fundamental Analysis | 54 | 83 |

Risk Unsystematic | 44 | 32 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
- Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
- Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
- A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
- K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
- Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
- Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Y stock?A: Y stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression

Q: Is Y stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Y Stock.

Q: Is Alleghany stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Alleghany is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of Y stock?

A: The consensus rating for Y is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for Y stock?

A: The prediction period for Y is (n+1 year)