When should you buy or sell a stock? (LON:HOTC Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HOTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HOTC stock.

Keywords: LON:HOTC, HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Market Outlook
3. Market Signals

LON:HOTC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HOTC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HOTC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HOTC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HOTC HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 09 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HOTC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HOTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HOTC stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HOTC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Ba3
Operational Risk	85	64
Market Risk	60	33
Technical Analysis	74	76
Fundamental Analysis	67	77
Risk Unsystematic	90	63

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 646 signals.

References

1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
2. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
3. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
4. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
5. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
6. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HOTC stock?
A: LON:HOTC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:HOTC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HOTC Stock.
Q: Is HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HOTEL CHOCOLAT GROUP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HOTC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HOTC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HOTC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HOTC is (n+1 year)

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