When to Sell and When to Hold CIEN Stock


With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We evaluate Ciena prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CIEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy CIEN stock.


Keywords: CIEN, Ciena, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. Trading Signals
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

CIEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We consider Ciena Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CIEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CIEN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CIEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CIEN Ciena
Time series to forecast n: 18 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy CIEN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Ciena assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CIEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy CIEN stock.

Financial State Forecast for CIEN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4077
Market Risk5875
Technical Analysis8053
Fundamental Analysis8134
Risk Unsystematic5353

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 478 signals.

References

  1. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  2. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  3. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  4. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  6. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  7. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CIEN stock?
A: CIEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CIEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy CIEN Stock.
Q: Is Ciena stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ciena is SellBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CIEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for CIEN is SellBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CIEN stock?
A: The prediction period for CIEN is (n+4 weeks)

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