When to Sell and When to Hold ON Stock (Forecast)

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate ON Semiconductor prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ON stock.

Keywords: ON, ON Semiconductor, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. Operational Risk

ON Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We consider ON Semiconductor Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of ON stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ON stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ON Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ON ON Semiconductor
Time series to forecast n: 09 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ON stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

ON Semiconductor assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ON stock.

Financial State Forecast for ON Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Operational Risk	73	60
Market Risk	68	30
Technical Analysis	43	87
Fundamental Analysis	60	31
Risk Unsystematic	57	43

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 767 signals.

References

1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
3. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
5. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
6. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
7. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ON stock?
A: ON stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is ON stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ON Stock.
Q: Is ON Semiconductor stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ON Semiconductor is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ON stock?
A: The consensus rating for ON is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ON stock?
A: The prediction period for ON is (n+8 weeks)

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