Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We evaluate Williams Companies prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WMB stock.

Keywords: WMB, Williams Companies, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trust metric by Neural Network
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

WMB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

As stock data is characterized by highly noisy and non-stationary, stock price prediction is regarded as a knotty problem. In this paper, we propose new two-stage ensemble models by combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) (or variational mode decomposition (VMD)), extreme learning machine (ELM) and improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm for stock price prediction, which are respectively named EMD–ELM–IHS and VMD–ELM–IHS. We consider Williams Companies Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of WMB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WMB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

WMB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WMB Williams Companies
Time series to forecast n: 22 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WMB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Williams Companies assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WMB stock.

Financial State Forecast for WMB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 6840
Market Risk6560
Technical Analysis3432
Fundamental Analysis3261
Risk Unsystematic4185

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 765 signals.

References

1. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
3. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
4. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
5. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
6. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
7. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for WMB stock?
A: WMB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is WMB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WMB Stock.
Q: Is Williams Companies stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Williams Companies is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WMB stock?
A: The consensus rating for WMB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for WMB stock?
A: The prediction period for WMB is (n+6 month)