AMD Options & Futures Prediction

A speculator on a Stock Market, aside from having money to spare, needs at least one other thing — a means of producing accurate and understandable predictions ahead of others in the Market, so that a tactical and price advantage can be gained. This work demonstrates that it is possible to predict one such Market to a high degree of accuracy. We evaluate Advanced Micro Devices prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AMD stock.

Keywords: AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

AMD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction. We consider Advanced Micro Devices Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of AMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AMD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AMD Advanced Micro Devices
Time series to forecast n: 19 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AMD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Advanced Micro Devices assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AMD stock.

Financial State Forecast for AMD Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	61	31
Market Risk	70	74
Technical Analysis	67	45
Fundamental Analysis	87	78
Risk Unsystematic	47	79

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 658 signals.

References

1. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
2. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
3. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
4. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
5. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
6. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AMD stock?
A: AMD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is AMD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AMD Stock.
Q: Is Advanced Micro Devices stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Advanced Micro Devices is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AMD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AMD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AMD stock?
A: The prediction period for AMD is (n+4 weeks)

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