Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices. We evaluate ARIANA RESOURCES PLC prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAU stock.

Keywords: LON:AAU, ARIANA RESOURCES PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can stock prices be predicted?
2. Short/Long Term Stocks

## LON:AAU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. We consider ARIANA RESOURCES PLC Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AAU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AAU stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:AAU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AAU ARIANA RESOURCES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 26 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAU stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ARIANA RESOURCES PLC

1. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
2. If a put option obligation written by an entity or call option right held by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at amortised cost, the associated liability is measured at its cost (ie the consideration received) adjusted for the amortisation of any difference between that cost and the gross carrying amount of the transferred asset at the expiration date of the option. For example, assume that the gross carrying amount of the asset on the date of the transfer is CU98 and that the consideration received is CU95. The gross carrying amount of the asset on the option exercise date will be CU100. The initial carrying amount of the associated liability is CU95 and the difference between CU95 and CU100 is recognised in profit or loss using the effective interest method. If the option is exercised, any difference between the carrying amount of the associated liability and the exercise price is recognised in profit or loss.
3. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
4. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

ARIANA RESOURCES PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAU stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:AAU ARIANA RESOURCES PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 3341
Market Risk7587
Technical Analysis4767
Fundamental Analysis4068
Risk Unsystematic7441

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 602 signals.

## References

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2. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
3. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
4. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
5. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
7. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AAU stock?
A: LON:AAU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:AAU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAU Stock.
Q: Is ARIANA RESOURCES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ARIANA RESOURCES PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AAU stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AAU is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AAU stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AAU is (n+16 weeks)