Modelling A.I. in Economics

BDEV Options & Futures Prediction (Forecast)

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. We evaluate Barratt Developments prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BDEV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BDEV stock.


Keywords: BDEV, Barratt Developments, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Decision Making
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

BDEV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper, we introduce a new prediction model depend on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU). Our predictive model relies on both online financial news and historical stock prices data to predict the stock movements in the future. We consider Barratt Developments Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BDEV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BDEV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BDEV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BDEV Barratt Developments
Time series to forecast n: 07 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BDEV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Barratt Developments assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BDEV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BDEV stock.

Financial State Forecast for BDEV Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4987
Market Risk8473
Technical Analysis5530
Fundamental Analysis4852
Risk Unsystematic7556

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 838 signals.

References

  1. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  2. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  4. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  5. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  7. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BDEV stock?
A: BDEV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is BDEV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BDEV Stock.
Q: Is Barratt Developments stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Barratt Developments is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BDEV stock?
A: The consensus rating for BDEV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BDEV stock?
A: The prediction period for BDEV is (n+3 month)

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