The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We evaluate Costco prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the COST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold COST stock.

Keywords: COST, Costco, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
2. Market Outlook
3. Decision Making

## COST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. We consider Costco Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of COST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of COST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## COST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: COST Costco
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold COST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Costco assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the COST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold COST stock.

### Financial State Forecast for COST Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 3832
Market Risk6338
Technical Analysis3488
Fundamental Analysis8874
Risk Unsystematic4749

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 824 signals.

## References

1. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
2. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
3. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
4. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
5. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for COST stock?
A: COST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is COST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold COST Stock.
Q: Is Costco stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Costco is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of COST stock?
A: The consensus rating for COST is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for COST stock?
A: The prediction period for COST is (n+8 weeks)