Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy or Sell: SMI Index Stock

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We evaluate SMI Index prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.


Keywords: SMI Index, SMI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

SMI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider SMI Index Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of SMI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMI Index SMI Index
Time series to forecast n: 04 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

SMI Index assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for SMI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B1
Operational Risk 4465
Market Risk3769
Technical Analysis3349
Fundamental Analysis3731
Risk Unsystematic3188

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 857 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
  2. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  3. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  6. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  7. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SMI Index stock?
A: SMI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is SMI Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index Stock.
Q: Is SMI Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMI Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMI Index stock?
A: The prediction period for SMI Index is (n+6 month)

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