Modelling A.I. in Economics

CACI Stock Forecast & Analysis

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. We evaluate CACI prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CACI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACI stock.


Keywords: CACI, CACI, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

CACI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We consider CACI Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CACI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CACI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CACI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CACI CACI
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

CACI assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CACI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACI stock.

Financial State Forecast for CACI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 8086
Market Risk8384
Technical Analysis6534
Fundamental Analysis4847
Risk Unsystematic3831

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 719 signals.

References

  1. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  3. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  5. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  6. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  7. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CACI stock?
A: CACI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is CACI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACI Stock.
Q: Is CACI stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CACI is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CACI stock?
A: The consensus rating for CACI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CACI stock?
A: The prediction period for CACI is (n+4 weeks)

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