Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can neural networks predict stock market? (LON:DRUM Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

With the up-gradation of technology and exploration of new machine learning models, the stock market data analysis has gained attention as these models provide a platform for businessman and traders to choose more profitable stocks. As these data are in large volumes and highly complex so a need of more efficient machine learning model for daily predictions is always looked upon. We evaluate DRUMZ PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DRUM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DRUM stock.


Keywords: LON:DRUM, DRUMZ PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. Can statistics predict the future?
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

LON:DRUM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. We consider DRUMZ PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DRUM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DRUM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:DRUM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DRUM DRUMZ PLC
Time series to forecast n: 23 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DRUM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

DRUMZ PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DRUM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DRUM stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:DRUM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 6472
Market Risk5373
Technical Analysis6936
Fundamental Analysis8563
Risk Unsystematic4990

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 750 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  2. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  3. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  4. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  6. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  7. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DRUM stock?
A: LON:DRUM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:DRUM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DRUM Stock.
Q: Is DRUMZ PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DRUMZ PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DRUM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DRUM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DRUM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DRUM is (n+6 month)

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