Can neural networks predict stock market? (BEL 20 Index Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Market systems are so complex that they overwhelm the ability of any individual to predict. But it is crucial for the investors to predict stock market price to generate notable profit. We have taken into factors such as Commodity Prices (crude oil, gold, silver), Market History, and Foreign exchange rate (FEX) that influence the stock trend. We evaluate BEL 20 Index prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BEL 20 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEL 20 Index stock.

Keywords: BEL 20 Index, BEL 20 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
3. Reaction Function

BEL 20 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting. We consider BEL 20 Index Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BEL 20 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BEL 20 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BEL 20 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BEL 20 Index BEL 20 Index
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEL 20 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

BEL 20 Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BEL 20 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEL 20 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for BEL 20 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	60	65
Market Risk	44	86
Technical Analysis	82	90
Fundamental Analysis	30	43
Risk Unsystematic	60	42

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 851 signals.

References

1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
2. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
3. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
6. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BEL 20 Index stock?
A: BEL 20 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is BEL 20 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEL 20 Index Stock.
Q: Is BEL 20 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BEL 20 Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BEL 20 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for BEL 20 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BEL 20 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for BEL 20 Index is (n+16 weeks)

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