Can neural networks predict stock market? (ROP Stock Forecast)

In this paper, we introduce a new prediction model depend on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU). Our predictive model relies on both online financial news and historical stock prices data to predict the stock movements in the future. We evaluate Roper Technologies prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ROP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROP stock.

Keywords: ROP, Roper Technologies, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Nash Equilibria
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

ROP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider Roper Technologies Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ROP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ROP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ROP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ROP Roper Technologies
Time series to forecast n: 24 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Roper Technologies assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ROP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROP stock.

Financial State Forecast for ROP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B1
Operational Risk	32	61
Market Risk	30	71
Technical Analysis	57	35
Fundamental Analysis	63	68
Risk Unsystematic	57	57

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 610 signals.

References

1. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
4. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
5. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
6. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
7. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ROP stock?
A: ROP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is ROP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ROP Stock.
Q: Is Roper Technologies stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Roper Technologies is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ROP stock?
A: The consensus rating for ROP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ROP stock?
A: The prediction period for ROP is (n+6 month)

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