Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can neural networks predict stock market? (LON:MAI Stock Forecast)

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MAI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MAI stock.


Keywords: LON:MAI, MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

LON:MAI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MAI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MAI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:MAI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MAI MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 06 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MAI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MAI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MAI stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:MAI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 4541
Market Risk5460
Technical Analysis4137
Fundamental Analysis7874
Risk Unsystematic6158

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 741 signals.

References

  1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  2. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  3. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  4. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  6. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  7. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MAI stock?
A: LON:MAI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:MAI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MAI Stock.
Q: Is MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MAINTEL HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MAI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MAI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MAI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MAI is (n+4 weeks)



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