Can neural networks predict stock market? (CAE Stock Forecast)

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction. We evaluate CAE Inc. prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CAE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CAE stock.

Keywords: CAE, CAE Inc., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Market Risk
3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

CAE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We consider CAE Inc. Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of CAE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CAE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CAE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CAE CAE Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CAE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

CAE Inc. assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CAE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CAE stock.

Financial State Forecast for CAE Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba3
Operational Risk	64	89
Market Risk	75	57
Technical Analysis	35	56
Fundamental Analysis	85	68
Risk Unsystematic	31	49

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 652 signals.

References

1. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
2. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
4. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CAE stock?
A: CAE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is CAE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CAE Stock.
Q: Is CAE Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CAE Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CAE stock?
A: The consensus rating for CAE is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CAE stock?
A: The prediction period for CAE is (n+3 month)

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