Can stock prices be predicted? (GS Stock Forecast)

A speculator on a Stock Market, aside from having money to spare, needs at least one other thing — a means of producing accurate and understandable predictions ahead of others in the Market, so that a tactical and price advantage can be gained. This work demonstrates that it is possible to predict one such Market to a high degree of accuracy. We evaluate Goldman Sachs prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GS stock.

Keywords: GS, Goldman Sachs, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is neural prediction?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

GS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, the stock market's prediction is a topic that attracted researchers in the world. Stock market prediction is a process that requires a comprehensive understanding of the data stock movement and analysis it accurately. Therefore, it needs intelligent methods to deal with this task to ensure that the prediction is as correct as possible, which will return profitable benefits to investors. The main goal of this article is the employment of effective machine learning techniques to build a strong model for stock market prediction. We consider Goldman Sachs Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of GS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GS Goldman Sachs
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Goldman Sachs assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GS stock.

Financial State Forecast for GS Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba2
Operational Risk	66	34
Market Risk	73	73
Technical Analysis	85	88
Fundamental Analysis	42	63
Risk Unsystematic	90	88

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 574 signals.

References

1. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
2. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
3. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
4. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
7. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GS stock?
A: GS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is GS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GS Stock.
Q: Is Goldman Sachs stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Goldman Sachs is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GS stock?
A: The consensus rating for GS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GS stock?
A: The prediction period for GS is (n+16 weeks)

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