Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (IEX Stock Forecast)

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We evaluate IDEX Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IEX stock.


Keywords: IEX, IDEX Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

IEX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Financial markets are fascinating if you can predict them. Also, the traders acting on financial markets produce a vast amount of information to analyse the consequences of investing according to the current market trends. Stock Market prediction is the technique to determine whether stock value will go up or down as it plays an active role in the financial gain of nation's economic status. We consider IDEX Corporation Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of IEX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IEX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IEX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IEX IDEX Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 07 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IEX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

IDEX Corporation assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IEX stock.

Financial State Forecast for IEX Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 6532
Market Risk4284
Technical Analysis3573
Fundamental Analysis6454
Risk Unsystematic7352

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 571 signals.

References

  1. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  2. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  3. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  4. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  5. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  6. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for IEX stock?
A: IEX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is IEX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IEX Stock.
Q: Is IDEX Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IDEX Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IEX stock?
A: The consensus rating for IEX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for IEX stock?
A: The prediction period for IEX is (n+1 year)

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