Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We evaluate ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAAP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAAP stock.

Keywords: LON:AAAP, ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Trust metric by Neural Network
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. Probability Distribution

## LON:AAAP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. We consider ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AAAP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AAAP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:AAAP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AAAP ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAAP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAAP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAAP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:AAAP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba3
Operational Risk 8674
Market Risk5849
Technical Analysis8443
Fundamental Analysis4278
Risk Unsystematic8278

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 583 signals.

## References

1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
2. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
3. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
4. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
6. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
7. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AAAP stock?
A: LON:AAAP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:AAAP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAAP Stock.
Q: Is ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ANGLO AFRICAN AGRICULTURE PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AAAP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AAAP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AAAP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AAAP is (n+6 month)

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