Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:BWRA Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Stock prediction with data mining techniques is one of the most important issues in finance being investigated by researchers across the globe. Data mining techniques can be used extensively in the financial markets to help investors make qualitative decision. One of the techniques is artificial neural network (ANN). However, in the application of ANN for predicting the financial market the use of technical analysis variables for stock prediction is predominant. In this paper, we present a hybridized approach which combines the use of the variables of technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators for prediction of future price of stock in order to improve on the existing approaches. We evaluate BRISTOL WATER PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BWRA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BWRA stock.


Keywords: LON:BWRA, BRISTOL WATER PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:BWRA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Sentiment Analysis is new way of machine learning to extract opinion orientation (positive, negative, neutral) from a text segment written for any product, organization, person or any other entity. Sentiment Analysis can be used to predict the mood of people that have impact on stock prices, therefore it can help in prediction of actual stock movement. We consider BRISTOL WATER PLC Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BWRA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BWRA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BWRA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BWRA BRISTOL WATER PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BWRA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

BRISTOL WATER PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BWRA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BWRA stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:BWRA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 8836
Market Risk3153
Technical Analysis4480
Fundamental Analysis5463
Risk Unsystematic8446

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 605 signals.

References

  1. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  2. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  3. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  5. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  6. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  7. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BWRA stock?
A: LON:BWRA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:BWRA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BWRA Stock.
Q: Is BRISTOL WATER PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BRISTOL WATER PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BWRA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BWRA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BWRA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BWRA is (n+1 year)

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