Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:HOC Stock Forecast)

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We evaluate HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HOC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HOC stock.

Keywords: LON:HOC, HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. Market Outlook
3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

LON:HOC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Finance is one of the pioneering industries that started using Machine Learning (ML), a subset of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early 80s for market prediction. Since then, major firms and hedge funds have adopted machine learning for stock prediction, portfolio optimization, credit lending, stock betting, etc. In this paper, we survey all the different approaches of machine learning that can be incorporated in applied finance. We consider HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HOC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HOC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HOC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HOC HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HOC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HOC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HOC stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HOC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	39	63
Market Risk	40	49
Technical Analysis	39	49
Fundamental Analysis	59	66
Risk Unsystematic	89	39

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 851 signals.

References

1. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
2. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
3. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
4. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
5. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
6. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HOC stock?
A: LON:HOC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:HOC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HOC Stock.
Q: Is HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HOC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HOC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HOC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HOC is (n+4 weeks)

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