Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:MAVT Stock Forecast)

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We evaluate MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MAVT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MAVT stock.


Keywords: LON:MAVT, MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Why do we need predictive models?

LON:MAVT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior. We consider MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MAVT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MAVT stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:MAVT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MAVT MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 29 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MAVT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC

  1. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
  2. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MAVT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MAVT stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:MAVT MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 8385
Market Risk5769
Technical Analysis8850
Fundamental Analysis5382
Risk Unsystematic3570

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 724 signals.

References

  1. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  2. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  3. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  6. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  7. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MAVT stock?
A: LON:MAVT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:MAVT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:MAVT Stock.
Q: Is MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MOMENTUM MULTI-ASSET VALUE TRUST PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MAVT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MAVT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MAVT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MAVT is (n+16 weeks)

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