Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:SEEN Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We evaluate SEEEN PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:SEEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:SEEN stock.


Keywords: LON:SEEN, SEEEN PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Trading Interaction
  2. Market Signals
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

LON:SEEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We consider SEEEN PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SEEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SEEN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SEEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SEEN SEEEN PLC
Time series to forecast n: 06 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:SEEN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

SEEEN PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:SEEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:SEEN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:SEEN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 6779
Market Risk7537
Technical Analysis8782
Fundamental Analysis4050
Risk Unsystematic6636

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 452 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  2. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  3. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  4. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  5. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  6. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SEEN stock?
A: LON:SEEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:SEEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:SEEN Stock.
Q: Is SEEEN PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SEEEN PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SEEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SEEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SEEN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SEEN is (n+6 month)

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