Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (VNO Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We evaluate Vornado Realty Trust prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNO stock.


Keywords: VNO, Vornado Realty Trust, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

VNO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider Vornado Realty Trust Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of VNO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VNO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VNO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VNO Vornado Realty Trust
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Vornado Realty Trust assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNO stock.

Financial State Forecast for VNO Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 4834
Market Risk4849
Technical Analysis3159
Fundamental Analysis7272
Risk Unsystematic6976

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 683 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  2. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  3. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  4. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  5. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  6. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  7. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for VNO stock?
A: VNO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is VNO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNO Stock.
Q: Is Vornado Realty Trust stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Vornado Realty Trust is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VNO stock?
A: The consensus rating for VNO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VNO stock?
A: The prediction period for VNO is (n+8 weeks)

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