Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (ZBH Stock Forecast)

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. We evaluate Zimmer Biomet prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZBH stock.


Keywords: ZBH, Zimmer Biomet, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Game Theory
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

ZBH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning addresses the question of how to build computers that improve automatically through experience. It is one of today's most rapidly growing technical fields, lying at the intersection of computer science and statistics, and at the core of artificial intelligence and data science. We consider Zimmer Biomet Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ZBH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ZBH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ZBH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ZBH Zimmer Biomet
Time series to forecast n: 11 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZBH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Zimmer Biomet assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZBH stock.

Financial State Forecast for ZBH Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B2
Operational Risk 6658
Market Risk8561
Technical Analysis4160
Fundamental Analysis8542
Risk Unsystematic7349

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 593 signals.

References

  1. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  3. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  4. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  5. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  6. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ZBH stock?
A: ZBH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ZBH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZBH Stock.
Q: Is Zimmer Biomet stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Zimmer Biomet is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ZBH stock?
A: The consensus rating for ZBH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ZBH stock?
A: The prediction period for ZBH is (n+8 weeks)



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