Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (NSE CIPLA Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. We evaluate Cipla Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE CIPLA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE CIPLA stock.


Keywords: NSE CIPLA, Cipla Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. What is a prediction confidence?
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

NSE CIPLA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We consider Cipla Limited Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE CIPLA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE CIPLA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE CIPLA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE CIPLA Cipla Limited
Time series to forecast n: 01 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE CIPLA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Cipla Limited assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE CIPLA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE CIPLA stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE CIPLA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 6887
Market Risk3974
Technical Analysis8176
Fundamental Analysis4537
Risk Unsystematic8750

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 581 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  6. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE CIPLA stock?
A: NSE CIPLA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is NSE CIPLA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE CIPLA Stock.
Q: Is Cipla Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cipla Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE CIPLA stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE CIPLA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE CIPLA stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE CIPLA is (n+16 weeks)

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